Why do Suez sailings also have to clear Bab el-Mandeb?
Bab el-Mandeb sits at 12.5°N, 43.3°E and connects Red Sea ↔ Gulf of Aden. The reference maps 6 modelled trade-route corridors onto this waypoint.
Bab el-Mandeb is the southern gate of the Red Sea. A Suez booking is a two-strait product: Mediterranean–Red Sea at Suez, Red Sea–Gulf of Aden here. Security incidents off Yemen therefore show up as Cape rerouting even when the canal itself is physically open. World Monitor keeps a bounded Red Sea security crisis tracker for that reason; this page is the waterway reference, not that tracker.
The modelled routes are the same Suez-dependent set: China → Europe, China → US East Coast (Suez), Persian Gulf → Europe (Oil), Qatar LNG → Europe, Singapore → Mediterranean, and India → Europe. Gulf–Asia oil and LNG that turn east after Hormuz do not need Bab el-Mandeb; the Europe-bound energy and the Asia–Europe container loops do.
The EIA World Oil Transit Chokepoints series records 6.2 million barrels a day on the Bab el-Mandeb row. World Monitor enables the energy shock model on this waterway.
The operational substitute is the Cape of Good Hope, modelled on that waterway’s page as Asia → Europe (Cape Route) and as the Americas energy Cape leg. That substitute adds thousands of nautical miles. It does not require a second Red Sea strait. The EIA 2023 Bab el-Mandeb baseline is 6.2 million barrels a day; shock modelling is enabled because those barrels sit on the same Suez-bound energy legs.
Major trade routes through Bab el-Mandeb
| Route | Category | Modelled volume | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| China → Europe (Suez) | Container | 47M+ TEU/year | |
| China → US East Coast (Suez) | Container | 12M+ TEU/year | |
| Persian Gulf → Europe (Oil) | Energy | 6.5M+ bpd | |
| Qatar LNG → Europe | Energy | 77M+ tonnes/year | |
| Singapore → Mediterranean | Container | 10M+ TEU/year | |
| India → Europe | Container | 6M+ TEU/year |
How to read this page
The crawlable Dataset is the registry-and-route snapshot under the chokepoint disruption methodology. Live pulse tiles are a separately frozen observation and are not copied into this Dataset. Modelled corridor volumes are dated .
Template revision 2026-09-03. Reference observation . This note is a methodology-revision stamp, not a live AIS clock. Published revisions that affect this page are in the corrections log.
Questions about Bab el-Mandeb
Can a ship use Suez without using Bab el-Mandeb?
Not on a voyage between the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean. The Red Sea has one southern gate. Intra-Red Sea moves are a different geography.
Does World Monitor model an energy shock for Bab el-Mandeb?
Yes. It is one of the four shock-model chokepoints. The EIA 2023 World Oil Transit Chokepoints baseline is 6.2 million barrels a day.
Which modelled trade routes use Bab el-Mandeb?
Bab el-Mandeb is a waypoint on China → Europe (Suez) (47M+ TEU/year); China → US East Coast (Suez) (12M+ TEU/year); Persian Gulf → Europe (Oil) (6.5M+ bpd); Qatar LNG → Europe (77M+ tonnes/year); Singapore → Mediterranean (10M+ TEU/year); India → Europe (6M+ TEU/year). Those corridor volumes are World Monitor modelled figures dated March 14, 2026 in src/config/trade-routes.ts.